Bitcoin heads into this week’s Fed rate decision on the back foot. BTC traded near $79,950 early Monday, October 26, down about 3% over seven days after a failed push toward $85,000 last week and a weekend dip to roughly $79,100, according to crypto.news.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets on October 27–28. The rate decision lands Wednesday, October 28 at 2:00 p.m. ET, followed by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET. Here’s what markets expect, what to watch, and the Bitcoin price levels that matter.
What markets expect from the Fed rate decision on October 28
The federal funds target range sits at 3.75%–4.00% after a 25-basis-point hike in September. Traders now see this meeting as a hold:
- Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket priced roughly a 94% chance of a hold and about 5% for another quarter-point hike as of Monday morning, per DeFi Rate.
- However, those odds have swung hard. After a hotter-than-expected September CPI print (3.7% year over year), CME FedWatch briefly priced a 41.5% chance of an October hike on October 14, according to 24/7 Wall St..
- Meanwhile, the bigger bet is on December. Markets price roughly a 76–79% chance of a hike at the December 9 meeting.
In other words, the Fed rate decision itself is likely a non-event. The market-moving part will be what the Fed signals about December.
Why the Fed rate decision matters for Bitcoin
Generally, higher rates raise the return on cash and bonds, which makes non-yielding, risk-on assets like Bitcoin less attractive at the margin. As a result, that pressure is already showing up in the flow data:
- ETF outflows. US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $635.6 million on October 22 and another $137.9 million on October 23, per Farside Investors data cited by crypto.news (new to this data? See how to read Bitcoin ETF flow data). Across Bitcoin and Ethereum funds, October outflows had passed $1 billion, according to CryptoTicker.
- Retail selling pressure. CryptoQuant data shows 30-day retail deposits to Binance climbing to about $10.75 billion, a six-month high, while whale deposits fell. Historically, exchange deposits often come before selling.
- Leverage. About $154 million in positions were liquidated over 24 hours into Monday, roughly three-quarters of them longs (CoinGlass).
If you’re new to how macro data feeds into price, our guide to understanding the Bitcoin price trend covers the basics.
Three things to watch in Wednesday’s Fed rate decision
- Dissents. Three officials dissented in favor of higher rates on July 29, before September’s hike (Forbes). Hawkish dissents this week would firm up a December hike.
- Warsh’s tone on December. There’s no new dot plot until December 9, and Warsh has moved away from forward guidance. As a result, that puts more weight on his press-conference answers.
- Energy and inflation language. Energy prices have climbed on Middle East supply disruptions. Therefore, any sign the Fed sees that spreading into broader prices would read as hawkish.
The rest of a busy week
| Date (ET) | Event | Why it matters for crypto |
|---|---|---|
| Wed, Oct 28, 2:00 p.m. | FOMC rate decision; Warsh press conference at 2:30 p.m. | Sets the tone for risk assets into December |
| Thu, Oct 29, 8:30 a.m. | Q3 GDP (advance) and September PCE inflation | PCE is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge |
| Thu, Oct 29 | ECB policy decision | Global liquidity and dollar direction |
| Thu, Oct 29, after close | Coinbase and Strategy Q3 2026 earnings | Trading volumes and the largest corporate BTC treasury |
| Fri, Oct 30 | About $11 billion in Bitcoin options expire | Can add volatility around big strike prices |
| Tue, Nov 3 | US midterm elections | A Fed hike this close to an election has happened once since 1990 |
Sources for the schedule: The Crypto Times and crypto.news.
Bitcoin price levels to watch
- Support: $79,000–$80,000. Analysts flag that a daily close below $79,000 could open a move toward $75,000.
- Resistance: $82,000 first, then the $85,000–$87,000 zone where last week’s rally failed.
- Range: BTC has held roughly $80,000–$86,000 for nearly two weeks (KuCoin). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index reads a neutral 50.
For the longer view, see our comprehensive market analysis of Bitcoin and why market capitalization matters when comparing moves.
Bottom line
In short, a hold at the Fed rate decision is close to fully priced in, so Bitcoin’s reaction will likely hinge on the December signal. For example, a hawkish message, through dissents or a firm Warsh, could extend ETF outflows and test the $79,000 support. On the other hand, a softer tone could give BTC room to retest $82,000. With PCE, big-name earnings and an $11 billion options expiry following within 48 hours, expect volatility to run through Friday.
BitcoinMG will cover the decision as it lands on Wednesday. Long-term holders may also want to revisit our long-term Bitcoin investment strategies.
Disclaimer: This article is for information only and is not financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrencies are volatile and you can lose money. Do your own research before making any investment decision.
